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☆ Oil falls for second day as rally pauses while traders take stock of Middle East tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the recent rally paused while traders took stock of where the conflict in Middle East was heading. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.56%, to $85.95 a barrel. But Barclays head of equity derivatives strategy Stefano Pascale said there are still upside risks to oil prices, particularly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite the recent rally taking a pause. "Further melt-up may reawaken inflationary concerns, derailing the equity rally," Pascale told clients in a note Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the March consumer price index reading on Wednesday to see how oil prices have impacted headline inflation.

Persons: Yoav Gallant, Brent, Israel, Stefano Pascale, Pascale Organizations: Gaza, The West Texas Intermediate, Barclays Locations: Rafah, Gaza, Middle East, The

☆ Gold's recent run is one for the history books and has gotten out of hand, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices are anticipating the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year but the historic move has gotten out of hand, according to Barclays. The precious metal has rallied about 7% over the past month, a move that has been surpassed only 6% of the time over the past decade, analysts led by Stefano Pascale told clients in a note released Tuesday. Gold rose for nine consecutive trading sessions — a near record run — according to the analysts. Large funds that had bet against gold started short covering in the wake of the Fed pivot, while demand for gold from central banks remained high, providing tailwinds for the precious metal. With gold getting ahead of itself, in Barclays' view, the British bank recommends that investors replace long delta positions with options to gain upside exposure, lock-in gains and limit downside risk.

Persons: Stefano Pascale, Pascale Organizations: Federal, Barclays

☆ Large stocks celebrate record while small caps remain mired in bear market
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small caps are conspicuously absent from Wall Street's bull market party. The S & P 500 confirmed Friday that a new bull market has begun, breaking both its intraday and closing record high from January 2022. Year to date thus far, the S & P 500 is up more than 1%, while the Dow has climbed 0.5%. "We think it's when the Fed cuts rates not if; this boosts small more than large," he wrote in a Monday note. Not everyone on Wall Street is as optimistic that Fed rate cuts will be an outsized catalyst for small caps.

Persons: Russell, Jason Goepfert, Sundial's Goepfert, Steven DeSanctis, DeSanctis, Barclays's Stefano Pascale, Pascale Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Capital, Micro, Wall

☆ Oil prices are pressuring airline stocks. These options trades can take advantage, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The spike in oil prices is weighing on airline stocks, and there is still time to for traders to take advantage of that relationship through options trades, according to Barclays. Such underperformance has been worse only 10% of the time in the past 25yrs," the Barclays note said on Tuesday. The options market does not appear to have priced in these risks, Pascale said, so Barclays recommended two short-term trades. This structure would lower the cost of the trade, though it would also limit the upside if the JETS ETF falls below the lower strike price. The Barclays note recommended using $18 and $17 as the strike prices.

Persons: Stefano Pascale, Morgan Stanley, Pascale, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Futures, U.S, Texas, U.S . Global Jets ETF, JETS, Airlines, Tuesday, Delta Air Lines, Morgan, Jet, JETS ETF, DAL Locations: underperform

☆ US options traders bet on near-term recovery as bank stocks rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Options traders were buying up short-term call options on a variety of names, including the SPDR S&P regional banking ETF (KRE.P) and regional banks such as First Republic Bank (FRC.N) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N). "It's early days here but … there is some stability returning in bank share price action," said Michael Purves, chief executive of Tallbacken Capital. "Risk-on appears to be the flavor for regional banks today," said Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of Los Angeles-based Capital Market Laboratories. Bullish speculation was particularly heavy in options expiring in less than a week, while longer-dated options saw less interest, he said. With some calm returning on Tuesday, options traders' also dialed back expectations for more near-term fireworks from the sector.

☆ There's one options strategy that can help investors play China’s reopening, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An options approach may be the best way for investors to play the recovery in Chinese stocks after the notoriously volatile stock market there has boomed to start 2023, a ccording to Barclays. One way to get some exposure to the uptrend while limiting potential risk is through a call spread on a Chinese-focused ETF, like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) , Barclays said. "We still recommend monetizing the China re-opening trade via options, and note that among China-related ETFs, call spreads are the most attractive on KWEB, given the relatively flat call skew," Pascale added. KWEB YTD mountain KWEB is off to a hot start in 2023. A call spread consists of buying one call option and selling another one at a higher strike price.

What this portends for stocks going into year end is unclear, but given how low volatility is just now it is reasonable to assume investor demand for protection and hedging will rise. Afraid of missing out on a year-end rally, investors are now paying a premium for equity 'call' options over 'puts'. Benchmark volatility gauges like the VIX index of implied vol on the S&P 500 or the V2TX index of implied vol on euro stocks rise when demand for put options spikes. The VIX has fallen recently to near a two-month low even as the S&P 500 has surged into the green and lurched back into the red. By mid-October the S&P 500 was down 25% and ripe for a bounce.

☆ Options activity hints U.S. stock market has not reached bottom- Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Trading in put contracts - typically used to protect against market losses - has surged, with a record 33.93 million put contracts changing hands on Friday alone. "Contrary to popular belief, equity investors did not hastily pile into protection buying," Barclays equity derivatives strategist Stefano Pascale said in a note on Tuesday. But while the trading activity suggests there is still fear in the market, it has not risen to levels associated with past market bottoms. "We don't see evidence of record equity protection buying when selling activity is also properly accounted for," Pascale said. For instance, in options on ETFs, puts selling reached a four-year record, according a Barclays analysis, signaling peak fear is still distant.

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